With a 0.550 batting average for 2005, clearly I wasn't reaching enough with my predictions, so for 2006 I'm going to live a bit more on the edge. Without further ado, 10 fearless predictions for 2006:
1) A winning candidate in the 2006 US Congressional elections will have campaigned in an MMO or virtual world
2) Apple's share of the PC market will double to 5%
3) Second Life's peak concurrency, currently at 5000, will reach 20,000
4) WoW will end 2006 with fewer players than it has today
5) Peter Ludlow won't send me an autographed copy of "Only a Game"
6) A Second Life resident will begin selling a service for exporting SL items to a Fab Lab (such as Berkeley's Squid Labs) in order to create them in the real world
7) A Virtual Research Foundation, based in a virtual world or MMO, will be created to gather games and virtual world research, create research standards, and provide funding to researchers
8) The US Democratic Party, in an attempt to capture the "family values" vote, will demonize games during the 2006 election cycle
9) A business or service in a virtual world will successfully file for a trademark
10) A Terra Nova author will testify before Congress about virtual worlds
>> 1) A winning candidate in the 2006 US Congressional elections will have campaigned in an MMO or virtual world
Only thing better would be "a winning candidate ... will have COME from an MMO or virtual world." But i guess that'll need to wait until 2008.
Second Life - currently bigger than Monaco, next Luxembourg
Posted by: hunter | Jan 17, 2006 at 00:53
6) A Second Life resident will begin selling a service for exporting SL items to a Fab Lab (such as Berkeley's Squid Labs) in order to create them in the real world
You mean like this? Or a service to do that kind of thing with any item you like? Sounds like fun...
Posted by: Peter Edelmann | Jan 17, 2006 at 01:21
1) A winning candidate in the 2006 US Congressional elections will have campaigned in an MMO or virtual world
I'd be very, very surprised if this happens. MMOs aren't exactly the best place to find a politically active group of *local* citizens.
2) Apple's share of the PC market will double to 5%
Nice if it did, but I doubt Apple could handle the demand. They'll see a boost from the new Intel boxes, but not double.
4) WoW will end 2006 with fewer players than it has today
I'd agree at first blush, but don't forget they have an expansion pack coming out, and I'd bet it will be released near the fall.
8) The US Democratic Party, in an attempt to capture the "family values" vote, will demonize games during the 2006 election cycle>
Already happened. Sen. Clinton rode the "Hot Coffee" bandwagon pretty hard.
10) A Terra Nova author will testify before Congress about virtual worlds
Unfortunately, since it'll be a witch-hunt when it happens.
Posted by: Scott Jennings | Jan 17, 2006 at 01:27
Shouldn't number 2 be:
"Apple's share of the PC market will double to 5%, not including machines running ports of Windows that run on the new Mac Intel platform?"
Anyway, the first candidate with the bumper sticker that reads:
"I wear lingerie in Second Life"
gets my vote regardless of party affiliation.
-- David
Posted by: David Thomas | Jan 17, 2006 at 01:28
#2 isn't about virtual worlds! *shakes fist*
7) A Virtual Research Foundation, based in a virtual world or MMO, will be created to gather games and virtual world research, create research standards, and provide funding to researchers
That sounds reminiscent of what (extremely little) I know about the Arden Institute. You know, Ted's thing?
I think you might want to work on that "on the edge" thing. =)
Posted by: Michael Chui | Jan 17, 2006 at 02:31
Michael Chui>That sounds reminiscent of what (extremely little) I know about the Arden Institute. You know, Ted's thing?
It's more specific than that, being a reference to the Aroland proposal at Ludium I.
Richard
Posted by: Richard Bartle | Jan 17, 2006 at 03:10
A-ro-land! A-ro-land!
Posted by: Thomas Malaby | Jan 17, 2006 at 03:32
1) A winning candidate in the 2006 US Congressional elections will have campaigned in an MMO or virtual world
Agreed, and it will be in SL
2) Apple's share of the PC market will double to 5%
No idea.
3) Second Life's peak concurrency, currently at 5000, will reach 20,000
Probably.
4) WoW will end 2006 with fewer players than it has today
Disagree.
5) Peter Ludlow won't send me an autographed copy of "Only a Game"
Agree – Peter and Mark certainly won’t SEND ME A COPY either, I’m sure that will just never happen.
6) A Second Life resident will begin selling a service for exporting SL items to a Fab Lab (such as Berkeley's Squid Labs) in order to create them in the real world
I thought that that was already happening.
7) A Virtual Research Foundation, based in a virtual world or MMO, will be created to gather games and virtual world research, create research standards, and provide funding to researchers
We have to get our asses in gear and make this one happen – go team Aroland.
8) The US Democratic Party, in an attempt to capture the "family values" vote, will demonize games during the 2006 election cycle
Sure, they are already doing this.
9) A business or service in a virtual world will successfully file for a trademark
Probably.
10) A Terra Nova author will testify before Congress about virtual worlds
Me me, pick me.
Posted by: ren reynolds | Jan 17, 2006 at 03:32
"A business or service in a virtual world will successfully file for a trademark"
Allready happened in Eve Online, by Hadean Drive Yards
Posted by: | Jan 17, 2006 at 08:15
"A business or service in a virtual world will successfully file for a trademark"
Allready happened in Eve Online, by Hadean Drive Yards
Posted by: Andrew Crystall | Jan 17, 2006 at 08:16
Andrew-
Wow, very cool! I poked around their site and didn't see any confirmation that they have a real world trademark, nor did their registration pop-up in online searches, but I'm not an expert on finding trademarks yet. Do you have any additional info?
Posted by: Cory Ondrejka | Jan 17, 2006 at 08:31
Ren said: "6) A Second Life resident will begin selling a service for exporting SL items to a Fab Lab (such as Berkeley's Squid Labs) in order to create them in the real world
I thought that that was already happening."
My understanding is that there have been two cases of objects being fabricated. One was someone getting mesh data out and into 3DStudio Max and then from there to a real part. However, according the person making the claim, the test was difficult and time-consuming. I suspect this is one reason they're not offering a service.
The second case (linked by Peter) is, from my understanding, a recreation of Second Life objects - not data taken from SL. Anyone with a CAD application and skill can do this easily.
The problem in my opinion isn't that it can't be done (obviously it can be). The issue is cost. Custom-fabricated objects are still relatively expensive (which is why the RepRap project to design and open source the design for a fabrication device is of interest).
Posted by: csven | Jan 17, 2006 at 09:04
#5 is clearly an attempt to get a free copy of the book. There is only one solution here. I'm sending you an autographed copy -- and a bill!
Posted by: Urizenus Sklar | Jan 17, 2006 at 09:21
Uri > #5 is clearly an attempt to get a free copy of the book. There is only one solution here. I'm sending you an autographed copy -- and a bill!
Which bit is the bill for, the book or the autograph?
Posted by: ren reynolds | Jan 17, 2006 at 09:37
8) The US Democratic Party, in an attempt to capture the "family values" vote, will demonize games during the 2006 election cycle
Maybe. Sure, Chuck Schumer, Hillary and Joe will beat the dead horse, but I don't know that it'll be a wise thing to do. My guess is that at some point a pollster will run the numbers on who plays games and thinks what about them, see the tremendous generational divide and the emergence of Gens X and Y as voter blocks, and will pause for thought.
Posted by: Dmitri Williams | Jan 17, 2006 at 10:54
With WoW being as difficult as it is to get into these days (at least on a proportionately high number of servers, it seems) I wouldn't be surprised to see them lost a great many subscribers. I cancelled last night for that reason. I enjoy creating new characters as much as the next player, but I haven't been able to play my main (in any sort of reasonable timeframe) in such a long time that I don't remember the char's name. However, I have to agree with the comment above that the upcoming expansion will hold many players and very likely bring many back (except me -- I have such terrible ADD that I buy several new titles every month or two, and I often don't play through most titles.)
Posted by: Chip Hinshaw | Jan 17, 2006 at 11:19
Dmitri: You'd be wrong about "pausing for thought" -- and I say that as a rather partisan Democrat.
It's really and age/culture thing -- people over a certain age (call it about mid-40s, right now) simply do not and cannot grasp that "videogames" are an adult hobby.
To them, videogames are for kids, and the only adults who play them are loner geeks/pervs/losers who don't vote and are probably child molesters to boot. At the very least, creepy and weird.
All the polls in the world aren't going to convince them of the truth -- that those who grew up with the first home videogame systems and first home computers have no interest in putting them aside. We're quite grown up, and we're still playing games.
Senators Lieberman (someone PLEASE run against him in the primary, please?) and Clinton have this deep set belief that videogames are for "kids" -- and that informs their actions on it, and that particular worldview is going to be a bitch to shake.
Testimony, poll-numbers, even the actual sales-demographics -- you might get it into their heads, but their gut isn't going to buy it.
Posted by: Morat | Jan 17, 2006 at 12:06
OP Said:
4) WoW will end 2006 with fewer players than it has today.
Safe bet, really. You have a 50/50 chance on people liking / not liking the expansion pack, and/or getting fed up with server congestion and quitting.
However, like any good designer drug, Im sure WoW will ebb and surge as new forms affect the use market.
Posted by: Lanky | Jan 17, 2006 at 13:06
You apparently give them too much credit. It seems like every week for the past month a new state law attempting to ban the sale of violent video games to minors has been proposed. I'd say number eight is closer to history than a predicition.
Posted by: | Jan 17, 2006 at 13:20
Of interest here: ASF is taking a serious look at the direction of virtual worlds wth our new Metaverse Roadmap Project, working with Ted’s Arden Institute and the New York Law School's State of Play conference as well. We're building a team from a wide range of networked 3D areas (gaming, VWs, MOGs, animation, design, ALife, and virtual maps like Google Earth) to envision possibilities and likelihoods on top of technology forecasts. There's such huge interest and need for this; we're bringing together the resources to do it. The roadmap is designed to be regularly revised to stay valid and relevant, and the process should serve as a rallying point for metaverse-thinking companies, researchers, and creatives who want to identify new and promising directions.
We'll have more up on metaverseroadmap.org soon, but this seemed like a good place to drop the news.
Posted by: Jerry Paffendorf | Jan 17, 2006 at 14:19
Morat is absolutely right.
It is an age/familiarity divide.
This is from the Comics Code of 1954, created in response to the horrific danger they posed to the youth of that time:
Code For Editorial Matter
General Standards Part A:
1) Crimes shall never be presented in such a way as to create sympathy for the criminal, to promote distrust of the forces of law and justice, or to inspire others with a desire to imitate criminals.
2) No comics shall explicitly present the unique details and methods of a crime.
3) Policemen, judges, government officials, and respected institutions shall never be presented in such a way as to create disrespect for established authority.
4) If crime is depicted it shall be as a sordid and unpleasant activity.
5) Criminals shall not be presented so as to be rendered glamorous or to occupy a position which creates the desire for emulation.
6) In every instance good shall triumph over evil and the criminal punished for his misdeeds.
7) Scenes of excessive violence shall be prohibited. Scenes of brutal torture, excessive and unnecessary knife and gun play, physical agony, gory and gruesome crime shall be eliminated.
8) No unique or unusual methods of concealing weapons shall be shown.
9) Instances of law enforcement officers dying as a result of a criminal's activities should be discouraged.
10) The crime of kidnapping shall never be portrayed in any detail, nor shall any profit accrue to the abductor or kidnapper. The criminal or the kidnapper must be punished in every case.
11) The letters of the word "crime" on a comics magazine shall never be appreciably greater than the other words contained in the title. The word "crime" shall never appear alone on a cover.
12) Restraint in the use of the word "crime" in titles or subtitles shall be exercised.
Posted by: BridgetAG | Jan 17, 2006 at 14:29
Got cut off:
Thank goodness that the foresighted guardians of youth in 1954 took such important actions that have resulted in the wholesome, crime-free society we enjoy today.
The parallels are painful.
Posted by: BridgetAG | Jan 17, 2006 at 14:33
Morat wrote "Dmitri: You'd be wrong about "pausing for thought" -- and I say that as a rather partisan Democrat.
It's really and age/culture thing -- people over a certain age (call it about mid-40s, right now) simply do not and cannot grasp that "videogames" are an adult hobby."
I agree totally that the generations think about these things differently. My point is not that Boomers and their politicians will change their minds. Opinion data show that generations simply don't. Rather, my point is that Baby Boomers are at the height of their demographic power, yet are about to start the long steady decline. They will eventually be displaced by Gen Xrs and Gen Yrs. It's just math. Those younger groups will be far more accepting of games as they age, and will be less accepting of some new thing we aren't talking about.
That sound you hear, Mr. Anderson, is the sound of inevitability . . .
Posted by: Dmitri Williams | Jan 17, 2006 at 15:12
Just clearing some questions on point#6 and its relation to Objects of virtual desire. The OvD project uses an interprative approach towards the virtual object, that is no 3D prototyping or exact data exports. The project focuses on how emotional/affectional relations are stablished towards virtually produced objects. Further the project uses, not Rapid Prototyping, but highly skilled craft persons involved in traditionall production systems.
The main goal of the project is therefore to raise questions and investigate into production/consumption systems in a broader context than only the digita domain.
Posted by: Sorgaard Jacques | Jan 17, 2006 at 15:26
Maybe. Sure, Chuck Schumer, Hillary and Joe will beat the dead horse, but I don't know that it'll be a wise thing to do. My guess is that at some point a pollster will run the numbers on who plays games and thinks what about them, see the tremendous generational divide and the emergence of Gens X and Y as voter blocks, and will pause for thought. -Dimitri
I predict that polster will be a Republican.
I'll also predict that within 3 years games will become inportant enough in corporate training to make a lot of these prejudices seem much more marginal.
Posted by: Tom Hunter | Jan 17, 2006 at 16:36
Uri> #5 is clearly an attempt to get a free copy of the book. There is only one solution here. I'm sending you an autographed copy -- and a bill!
Ren> Which bit is the bill for, the book or the autograph?
Knowing SL it could well be a face mounted attachment that comes as part of a duck av kit.
Posted by: Jim Purbrick | Jan 17, 2006 at 19:11
Uri> #5 is clearly an attempt to get a free copy of the book
Dammit, you've seen through my brilliant scheme!
Posted by: Cory Ondrejka | Jan 18, 2006 at 02:19
Ren>Which bit is the bill for, the book or the autograph?
Does the autograph devalue the book? Or perhaps the bill itself a collector's item which it should charge for?
Richard
Posted by: Richard Bartle | Jan 18, 2006 at 03:18
It's interesting that so many predictions concern Second Life, and not other games/platforms.
The 5000 mark has only just been reached with something like 110,000 subscribers, so it's hard to believe within a year, that the 20,000 mark could be reached, but surprise us!
BTW, doesn't avalon already have a trademark? That is, it started out with one, and then used SL to prototype goods and sell them inworld and then also make the same items, i.e. sneakers, in RL.
Have you noticed the inherent contradiction contained in these two statements:
"1) A winning candidate in the 2006 US Congressional elections will have campaigned in an MMO or virtual world"
"8) The US Democratic Party, in an attempt to capture the "family values" vote, will demonize games during the 2006 election cycle".
That's going to be a neat trick, demonizing games AND campaigning in them! Well, I'm sure our Democratic Party won't let us down on that one.
Jerry, since you put in an ad for Democracy Island, etc. with this "ASF is taking a serious look at the direction of virtual worlds wth our new Metaverse Roadmap Project, working with Ted’s Arden Institute and the New York Law School's State of Play conference as well. We're building a team from a wide range of networked 3D areas (gaming, VWs, MOGs, animation, design, ALife, and virtual maps like Google Earth) to envision possibilities and likelihoods on top of technology forecasts. There's such huge interest and need for this; we're bringing together the resources to do it. The roadmap is designed to be regularly revised to stay valid and relevant, and the process should serve as a rallying point for metaverse-thinking companies, researchers, and creatives who want to identify new and promising directions"
...let me note that such research projects are interesting, they are necessary, but they are often given a free ride when it comes to the public -- to which they are not accountable. Where they really will encounter difficulties is when they leverage MMORPG "wizard" and "leveling up" culture to position themselves to be the Wise Men of the Platform, and simply take over and impose governance solutions (if not government) under the guise of "developing the tools for democracy".
We already have a terrible example of what I'm talking about -- Linden engineers coming up with a "democratic voting system" that *does not allow you to vote no*. I really wish the eggheads at TN would wrap their heads around that one.
The problem is that the amorphous and chaotic atmosphere of MMORPGs and virtual worlds means that anyone with a lot of resources, media attention, and clout can take a thing like "helping citizens to deliberate" and just run the place. I reject this. Whoever can tap the most foundation funding and free labour wins the Metaverse? No.
Posted by: Prokofy Neva | Jan 18, 2006 at 05:33
WoW will end 2006 with fewer players than it has today
I think this prediction is much like the one last year stating that no MMO will exceed 1 million subscribers in the US. It's just not going to happen. If WoW releases an expansion this year, which it will, the number of subscribers will grow, not shrink.
Posted by: RedWolf | Jan 18, 2006 at 06:39
Richard>Does the autograph devalue the book?
ANNA
....Signed by the author, I see.
WILLIAM
Yes, we couldn't stop him. If you
can find an unsigned copy, it's
worth an absolute fortune.
Posted by: Dan Hunter | Jan 18, 2006 at 08:59
#5 is cheap... way cheap... and shouldn't count. :)
I am pretty certain both #8 and #9 have already happened.
Posted by: Michael Hartman | Jan 18, 2006 at 11:22
Prediction Appendum:
1. The Arden Institute will garner increased measurable awareness among educators, students, entertainment professionals, weekend farmers, bean counters, flat-footers, and two politicians. It will raise further awareness for less redundant applications of virtual world technology, and thereby raise eyebrows among educational reformers.
Note: (about the two politicians) Virtual Genie says they will be looking for reasons to advocate games that do not cater solely to killing and bloodshed participation, and may even recognize what proposed worlds such as Frontier 1859 (and other projects) are doing to build authentic role playing experiences based on player-run societies and the accountability thereof.
Posted by: Daniel McMillan | Jan 18, 2006 at 15:26
How about this prediction:
X)A console MMOG (or port) will become popular (over 100K subscribers).
Posted by: RedWolf | Jan 18, 2006 at 20:21
I realize this is a few days late, but it's been a busy week for me. Cory, I don't mean this as a direct reply to your list, just thought I'd throw out a few predictions of my own:
1. Politicians, the media, and/or psychologists will discover MMOGs, and will decry the violence taught to our children under the banner of "PvP".
2. EA will announce that they now, finally, "get" this MMOG thing and are going to try it all over again. Then they'll hire all the wrong people for the project.
3. One of the high profile licensed MMOGs -- Lord of the Rings Online, DDO, Star Trek, etc -- will fail spectacularly. More companies will rush to make licensed MMOGs.
4. Tabula Rasa still will not ship. The project won't be cancelled out right, but team members and resources will quietly begin to be reallocated.
5. WoW will finish out 2006 with more than 8 million customers.
6. Steps will be made towards agreeing on a universal definition of "customer", but no consensus will be reached in 2006.
7. Viable MMOG platforms will begin to launch, leading to an upsurgence in small professional indie MMOGs, as well as research MMOGs.
8. Someone will begin development on an ARG-MMOG hybrid. We'll have to come up with a whole new acronym.
9. A heretofore quiet and unrecognized voice in the industry will write an article or book that will change the way we make virtual worlds.
10. At a conference, Lee Sheldon will beat me spectacularly at Quiddler, and Mike Sellers will come up with more words Lee doesn't know.
And it'd hardly be far to count this one, so I'll number it 11 and leave it out of my batting average for next year:
11. I'll end 2006 more bitter than I entered it, but will still love my job.
-Samantha
Posted by: Samantha LeCraft | Jan 20, 2006 at 20:34
>>3) Second Life's peak concurrency, currently at 5000, will reach 20,000
I disagree. Most people in the game industry realize that SL is going nowhere fast. SL will never achieve mass appeal, primarily because of the mechanics that make the world so intimidating and hard to use. I've tried several times to have an enjoyable experience on SL, and am thwarted each time by the lag, oddities in the scripting language and buggy behaviour. Also there are the SL residents themselves, i've never before encountered such a large collection of perverts and deviants, 'Goreans', BDSM and Age play freaks? Come on people! I'm sure that Wells Fargo was not aware of this side of SL when they leased an island, but they shortly will.
Even though SL now has 120,000 "members", most are like me; sign up, check it out, get turned off, never return. Even the US$ transactions per day ticker on their webpage is dubious. It often goes days without being updated, and I find it hard to believe that members are spending on that scale. Even if one assumed that there were approximately 15,000 hard core members online at some point in the day making transactions, they would still have to spending at least $17 per per member, per day to account for that number....I don't think so.
Bottom line, why would anyone want to hang out in a virtual trailer park full of pervs?
Posted by: Ron | Jan 20, 2006 at 23:05
4) WoW will end 2006 with fewer players than it has today
Yeh, right :)
Posted by: Game Producer | Jan 21, 2006 at 02:39
7) A Virtual Research Foundation, based in a virtual world or MMO, will be created to gather games and virtual world research, create research standards, and provide funding to researchers
Bernie Frischer (who ran the Cultural VR lab at UCLA until he moved to Virginia) said at a conference last year, there were moves afoot at setting up a virtual heritage foundation, based, surprise surprise, in Rome. I don't know if it was set in stone or a pipe dream or if they were looking at MMORPG appps. Somehow, I doubt the latter, but it is about time they did.
Posted by: ErikC | Jan 21, 2006 at 03:21
Cory... done in 05...
avalon.(tm)
is a registered trade mark of Rivers Run Red Ltd.
Posted by: Fizik Baskerville | Jan 22, 2006 at 14:07
Allow me to add a few of my own predictions.
Ah, no use keeping score. I don't want to be right, anyway.
Posted by: Brian 'Psychochild' Green | Jan 23, 2006 at 22:55
How about predicting a second Games-Based Learning Seminar? The first one was awesome. Now I'm almost able to change my avatar's shirt color in SL.
Posted by: NineShift | Jan 24, 2006 at 20:50
7)7) A Virtual Research Foundation, based in a virtual world or MMO, will be created to gather games and virtual world research, create research standards, and provide funding to researchers
TheAcademic Advanced Distributed Learning (ADL) Co-Lab could also fulfil this.
http://www.academiccolab.org/index.html
Posted by: childlit513 | Jan 27, 2006 at 22:49