Well, after further review, I hit 0.500 for 2004, so it's time to throw down for 2005. Read on for 10 fearless predictions for 2005:
1) A digital world property case will make it the courts in the United States.
2) Legislation will be proposed that is intended to "stop" "piracy" and/or to "protect" children but that actually threatens online games.
3) Guild War's experiment with a non-subscription model will be successful.
4) No US MMO will exceed 1,000,000 customers.
5) A major online game will embrace a secondary market for digital items.
6) A non-licensed, non-fantasy MMO will be successful [edit: and have over 100k users].
7) A non-game company will integrate a digital world into their CAD/CAM process.
8) A reality TV show based in a digital world will launch.
9) More of my predictions will come true than Uri's.
10) 7 or more Terra Nova authors will be at the same conference at least once.
"9) More of my predictions will come true than Uri's."
Hmmm, maybe we should have a wager. I should get odds though, cuz, well, your predictions are relatively more wimpy.
Posted by: Urizenus Sklar | Jan 07, 2005 at 20:32
> 6) A non-licensed, non-fantasy MMO will be successful.
Define successful.
Posted by: Abalieno | Jan 07, 2005 at 20:39
Abalieno> Economically successful.
Posted by: Cory Ondrejka | Jan 07, 2005 at 21:25
But what does economically successful mean? $1 profit? 50% first year return on investment?
Posted by: Matt Mihaly | Jan 07, 2005 at 21:58
Incidentally, does Guild War's business model really count as an experiment? I mean, you're buying a game and then they want you to buy expansions later. That model has been around for awhile hasn't it?
Posted by: Matt Mihaly | Jan 07, 2005 at 22:02
By the way, 10K Linden Dollars says your prediction 9 is wrong.
I take this bet in the hopes that even if I lose, it will give Cory a reason to keep the value of the Linden dollar up, and also because it will make it less likely that I get suspended from SL (my prediction #6) and that my private sim will get terraformed to oblivion (my prediction #9) and that Cory (or Robin) might quit SL (my prediction #1). But suppose someone offered him 7 figures. Would Cory turn down a 7 figure job and stay at Linden Lab just to win a bet with me? Well, the bragging rights here are monumental...
Posted by: Urizenus Sklar | Jan 07, 2005 at 23:11
"Well, after further review, I hit 0.500 for 2004, so it's time to throw down for 2005. Read on for 10 fearless predictions for 2005:"
I'm still not convinced you didn't get .400, but assuming you're correct, let's go ahead and break down these predictions.
"1) A digital world property case will make it the courts in the United States."
Very intersting prediction. In my mind, it would be hard for it to actually make it to court because of two reasons.
1. Many players of games with digital property aren't from the United States, making their cases not presentable there
2. Many of the other game companies aren't based in the United States, making it out of United States Jurisdiction
"2) Legislation will be proposed that is intended to "stop" "piracy" and/or to "protect" children but that actually threatens online games."
I still don't see how legislation to stop piracy would harm online gaming, but perhaps protecting children would harm a few that allow adult content and children both.
"3) Guild War's experiment with a non-subscription model will be successful."
As has been previously pointed out, this isn't an experiment at all.
"4) No US MMO will exceed 1,000,000 customers."
Just as a point of clarification here, do you mean MMOs based in the US or MMOs that have US branches/US players? If you mean the former, I would think this is a VERY safe prediction. If you mean the latter, I would watch out for games such as Final Fantasy XI.
"5) A major online game will embrace a secondary market for digital items."
Once again, a vague, undefined term. This time we have two, though. First off, what do you consider major? Second of all, what do you mean by game? MMOs strictly?
"6) A non-licensed, non-fantasy MMO will be successful."
The vague generalties you've created here have already been pointed out, so I won't go back over them, however relevant they may be.
"7) A non-game company will integrate a digital world into their CAD/CAM process."
This is already on the forefront, so one again a dinky prediction. Look at the Active Worlds technology that has been around since 1995, in fact. If they would get their act together, this would have been done and marketed years ago.
"8) A reality TV show based in a digital world will launch."
Well, well, well. Another dinky prediction, but one that already came true in the year 2004. I'm quite disappointed, Cory. There are two of these in existance. One is "Drawn Together" on (I believe) Comedy Central. Technically, it takes place in a digital world. The second is a show from MTV2 (I can't remember the name), where they take music videos and re-produce them in (I bet you can't guess this) a digital world! Wow, too bad this "prediciton" is already true.
"9) More of my predictions will come true than Uri's."
Hmm, perhaps this is a direct challenge on the Herald since we both know the Lindends don't appreciate it at all. After comparing the two lists, though, this will probably come true because of the fact that you have multiple easy-cheesy predictions and one that has already come true.
"10) 7 or more Terra Nova authors will be at the same conference at least once."
My guess is that this is already planned to come true, or could be VERY easily planned. Yet another....dinky prediction.
All in all, Cory, I have to say I'm disappointed with this year's predictions as compared to last year's. Last year's seemed more cutting-edge than these that are a group of easy-to-accomplish goals and things that have occured. At least Uri, even if some of his are wrong, has stayed on the forefront of possibility.
Posted by: Matthias Zander | Jan 08, 2005 at 00:04
9 is a funny prediction. What if, aside prediction #9, you and Uri have the same number of correct predictions? Then prediction 9 will be both true and false, depending on how a statement is phrased.
Posted by: dkritz | Jan 08, 2005 at 02:37
>1) A digital world property case will make it the
>courts in the United States.
This will inevitably happen eventually, of course. It would probably be in the interests of the MMORPG community or those parties interested in its welfare that such a case be delayed as long as possible, but it will eventually, inexorably occur. I have never felt much reason to have faith in the legislative process of any country that I have observed...Experience has repeatedly shown that State-backed law is best left out of any affair if it is at all possible.
>2) Legislation will be proposed that is intended to
>"stop" "piracy" and/or to "protect" children but that
>actually threatens online games.
This is also likely. Laws passed with the claimed purpose of protecting children generally have a lot more to do with attempting to protect the sensibilities of the individuals who pass them, or whichever vocal minority is percieved to be of like mind. Lawmakers generally care primarily about who can a) scream the loudest, or b) throw the most money at them, and since children on their own generally are not capable of either of those, comparitive to the rest of the population, the welfare of children directly as such is not chief among legislator priorities, despite how much they might want us to believe the contrary.
>4) No US MMO will exceed 1,000,000 customers.
Seems like a very safe bet. I could be wrong, but from everything I've seen, MMORPGs still aren't entirely what could be referred to as "mainstream." We're still in the experimental phase...and from what I've seen with most technologies, the bulk of the population generally don't completely jump on the bandwagon until a fairly high proportion of the bugs have been ironed out. We're slowly pulling out of the phase where the stereotypical single, basement dwelling social outcast of questionable psychiatric stability who "lives" in a given virtual world makes up the bulk of the userbase, as is evidenced by the increase in secondary trading, due to individuals with jobs who have more money than time. I think it will still be a few years before the greater population really takes hold, however...Still a few design issues to get past yet.
>5) A major online game will embrace a secondary market
>for digital items.
This would make sense, although I have no idea which game it'll be. I'll bet money it won't be anything run by either EA or Blizzard/Vivendi. Blizzard are traditionally far too obstinately devoted to the enforcement method with regards to those who try to operate outside of their control, and I think they would view support for secondary trading as a concession of defeat, which they would be unwilling to make. I also don't believe EA are intelligent, lucid, or creative enough by half to do it. They also see trading as something to either be grudgingly tolerated where they can't stop it, (UO) or crushed when they can. (The Sims Online)
>6) A non-licensed, non-fantasy MMO will be successful.
Highly likely. I remember Bruce Woodcock's comment in his analysis about the fantasy genre becoming saturated. I've had one idea about another possibly less orthodox direction a virtual world could go in, but I'm a bit afraid to talk about it for fear someone might run off with it. ;)
>8) A reality TV show based in a digital world will
>launch.
Interesting idea. I'd like to see a single or episodic documentary set in/about one of the major graphical virtual worlds...but one other than Norrath/EQ, simply because I think most of the case study based research on MMORPGs that I've seen has been overwhelmingly tilted in EQ's favour. Show us something about one of the *other* virtual worlds out there. ;)
Posted by: Petrus | Jan 08, 2005 at 03:33
Hahaha. I feel silly. I was reading this, thinking it was a serious post, before I realized Cory wrote it. How embarrassing.
1) A digital world property case will make it the courts in the United States.
Uh, Marvel vs. Cryptic Studios? Or do you mean, "Two parties in Second Life will file suit of an IP dispute?" You'd love that, wouldn't you.
7) A non-game company will integrate a digital world into their CAD/CAM process.
That would be great if some company with MMO experience would sell a shrink-wrapped VW for companies to use as a collaborative, RAD/prototyping environment. I don't see it happening, though. Companies who make worlds that would be useful to CAD/CAM types -- oh, like, SECOND LIFE -- aren't interested in making useful tools. They get off making "worlds" -- whatever that means.
Posted by: Andrew Burton | Jan 08, 2005 at 07:32
One more thing...
2) Legislation will be proposed that is intended to "stop" "piracy" and/or to "protect" children but that actually threatens online games.
Given that "some company" is releasing a "teen grid" n 2005, I have to question this prediction. On the one hand, saying laws to top piracy will be proposed is about like saying "the sky is blue." However, given the "teen grid" "some company" is releasing, it makes me wonder just what the business plan looks like:
1) Build virtual world where ONLY teenagers can play.
2) Let ONLY teenagers build sexy avatars.
3) Act surprised when non-teens are discovered hitting on teens.
4) Draw the ire of parents whose teens have attracted stalkers.
If it weren't for the fact that Cory's employer is releasing a teen grid this year, his predicton might be funny. However, seeing that Linden Lab is releasing a product that could warrant phrases like "protect the children," I find this prediction to be wholly immature.
Posted by: Andrew Burton | Jan 08, 2005 at 07:47
"8) A reality TV show based in a digital world will launch."
Well, well, well. Another dinky prediction, but one that already came true in the year 2004. I'm quite disappointed, Cory. There are two of these in existance. One is "Drawn Together" on (I believe) Comedy Central. Technically, it takes place in a digital world. The second is a show from MTV2 (I can't remember the name), where they take music videos and re-produce them in (I bet you can't guess this) a digital world! Wow, too bad this "prediciton" is already true.
I believe Cory's prediction here is a reality show based on/within an existing MMO (or possibly a even percieved one). "Drawn Together" is "a reality TV show based in an animated world" - given context this doesn't line up. Additionally the MTV2 show you're referring to is "Video Mods" - which is music videos using 3D game assets to artists' tracks (production note: this nearly Machinima, but not quite). Again, this doesn't fit the prediction.
WTOOTW, I think its a plausible prediction. Broadcast networks are scrambling to keep people tuned in for their half-hour slots. And if the latest stats are anything to read, they should be worried. Creating passive entertainment around what is normally interactive, is what made soaps successful in the first place.
Posted by: Paul Marino | Jan 08, 2005 at 12:26
Some clarifications:
For 1), IANAL, but Marcel v. NCSoft/Cryptic seems to be more about conventional IP law then about digital property. I was thinking soemthing along the lines of Blacksun.
For 2), Like IICA in 2004, legislation could be proposed that poses a major risk to online games. Other candidates would be the FCC's deciding that CALEA applies to all "IP enabled" services.
Regarding 3), of course Guild Wars is an experiment. If nobody buys their expansions, they will lose money on this product. Traditional boxed products have limited ongoing expenses, while GW's business model is focused on continuing to add content. Also, assuming the normal 200k - 400k sell through for GW as an MMO, they probably won't recoup their development costs without selling expansions either.
Change 6) to "A non-licensed, non-fantasy MMO will join the 100k club"
An example of 7) would be if DaimlerChrylser, for example, added a collaborative space to their use of CATIA. While it is easy to say "that should have happened already", it has not and there is no major indication that it will happen this year.
Paul already explained 8).
As for a Uri side bet, I don't see how any monetary compensation could hope to compete with the bragging rights?
Posted by: Cory Ondrejka | Jan 08, 2005 at 13:27
Couldn't resist coming up with 10 of my own.
Posted by: Jerry Paffendorf | Jan 08, 2005 at 18:40
7) A non-game company will integrate a digital world into their CAD/CAM process.
The open-ness of this prediction seems to allow Ford Motor Company's existing work on the Digital Occupant system. This is a far cry from the free-form VR CAD environment rumoured a few years back, but it is a virtual world integrated into the design process to allow experimental prototyping and interfacing.
Posted by: Darniaq | Jan 08, 2005 at 20:51
It doesn't even need to be free-form VR CAD, but when you look at Ford's work and CATIA, it's clear that it could be done. It's only a matter of whether or not it is economically advantageous to the companies to do this.
Posted by: Cory Ondrejka | Jan 09, 2005 at 01:03
Andrew wrote:
>I remember Bruce Woodcock's comment in his
>analysis about the fantasy genre becoming
>saturated.
I think it is. Over 75% of the market by subscribers is fantasy-based, and that's not even counting all the Korean MMOs. I think sci-fi should have a much bigger slice of the pie. In 2005, they should start to get it -- The Matrix Online, Face of Mankind, Tabula Rasa, and Imperator are all on deck. But they'll be competeing with the growing numbers for EQ2 and WoW, as well as newcomers Guild Wars, Middle Earth Online, Dungeons & Dragons Online, Might & Magic Online, and Warhammer Online. So it's hard to say just what the picture will look like.
Cory wrote:
>Change 6) to "A non-licensed, non-fantasy MMO
>will join the 100k club"
Well, I think City of Heroes already qualifies, since the "superhero" genre is far more sci-fi than traditional fantasy.
However, I would agree that it seems likely either Imperator or Tabula Rasa (or both) will break 100K.
Bruce
Posted by: Bruce Woodcock | Jan 09, 2005 at 01:46
Bruce, yes, I meant another one. And I also agree with you comments about Sci-Fi having a shot this year (assuming that they actually ship).
Posted by: Cory Ondrejka | Jan 09, 2005 at 03:58
In regards to #8, Ragnarok the cartoon may reach he US soon.
Posted by: magicback | Jan 09, 2005 at 05:07
Jerry Pappendorf wrote:
Couldn't resist coming up with 10 of my own.
#1: Digital worlds will hit the cover of a mainstream non-gaming magazine (Time, Wired, The Economist, something)
Everquest was on the cover of TV Guide almost 5 years ago. WAY more mainstream than Wired or the Economist.
--matt
Posted by: Matt Mihaly | Jan 10, 2005 at 02:07
While it is easy to say "that should have happened already", it has not and there is no major indication that it will happen this year.
So, what you're saying is that Linden Lab has no plans for Second Life to be anything other than a virtual Las Vegas this year; I should plan on using Alice3D or the OSMP if I want to use a collaborative, 3D design space for anything besides playing "virtual economy?" Seriously, Cory, you just said "there is no major indication that it will happen this year," the "it" in there being an integrated VW used for collaborative CAD/CAM work, and you're Vice President of Product Development for the single piece of software out there that's the closest to this.
Did I just have a stroke?
Posted by: Andrew Burton | Jan 10, 2005 at 16:33
While I would love to announce that Toyota is going to use Second Life as a central part of its design process, I have no indication that will happen this year. Second Life is very much a consumer oriented product right now and I'm sure that out customers prefer that we keep our focus there.
As I already mentioned, I was specifically envisioning adding shared spaces to large CAD/CAM work a la CATIA. Of course, if TN readers would like to use SL in their design or manufacturing processes, I would be thrilled.
Posted by: Cory Ondrejka | Jan 10, 2005 at 21:11