Confounded industry

I often wonder about how narratives, especially speculative ones, shape reality. There certainly seems to be a powerful effect on markets (in that stocks can be ‘talked’ up or down).

So with trepidation I note that in November 2003 Dr Castronova posted The Coming MMORPG Crash, Or Not and then First Sign of an MMOG Downturn?.

Then in February Mythica was taken into the dark woods never to return. And last week the news sort of sneaked out that (according to gamespot) Ubisoft have followed the cancellation of the online component of Uru: Ages Beyond Myst by pulling out of The Matrix Online – leaving Warner Bros. Interactive Entertainment to take the project forward (with Monolith Productions remaining as the Dev shop). According to Warner Bros. Beta is still expected to hit our screens this spring with the full release in November.

Though these events do have too be contrasted with industry predictions that overall the MMO market is growing in strength.

So maybe it is just all a case of too much too soon.

Though none of this helps when all I want for xmas (publishers start taking notes now) is a Steam Punk based virtual world. I want wear decent clothes (with an unfeasibly tall hat) and create infernal devices comprising of pistons, valves and shiny bits made from brass.

Confound you games industry, confound you I say.

Comments

[Cory Ondrejka]

1.

Ren> Though none of this helps when all I want for xmas (publishers start taking notes now) is a Steam Punk based virtual world. I want wear decent clothes (with an unfeasibly tall hat) and create infernal devices comprising of pistons, valves and shiny bits made from brass.

With either a bit of time on your part or a few L$ judiciously spent paying other users you could certainly get that in SL. And if people liked spending time with your creations, you could even get US$ back, either through developer rewards (payment from LL) or through a visit to Gaming Open Market.

I know this is blatant self-promotion, but I think that it is an important point: there are too many great ideas for online themes and spaces for them to all make it into commercial products.

[Mycroft Artiums Ren-a-ville]

2.

I think that’s already in the running for brazenly shameless plug of 2004 :)

So I could set up the Steam Driven VW company; buy, say an Island off LL (no point in thinking small), then set up my own piston driven steam nirvana. Mmm, maybe I need to start to read the small print of SL to see what revenue models could be used, I’d rather go for admission fees rather than selling objects.

Omg, hold on, I’m having game design delusions now.

Actually I like the idea of 2L (or others for that matter) as more of a meta-world where people can create stuff like this – it might be a way, indeed the only way to provide for freakish fringe interests like mine. But it does drag us back to the debate over players as creators. For one thing, call me boring and lazy but I don’t want to do any work or thinking, I just want to turn up and play. I also want to play somewhere that been designed by people with way more talent in this area than me.

Maybe there is a middle industry there of companies that want to set up in-world games i.e. VWs in VWs not simply houses and / or events. Or maybe this already exists and I’m just not paying attention.

[Edward Castronova]

3.

Ren> So maybe it is just all a case of too much too soon.

That's what I think has got to happen. Consider this: none of the worlds on the assembly line seem to be radically different from EQ-style design decisions. Level, level, level your way upward through incredibly complex combat systems, then, go on 12-hour raids to kill big dragons or other players or something. That's fine for some players, but, not the mainstream. As David Weinberger put it, "MMORPGs are boring!"

So to produce 15-20 EQ clones is a typical case of over-optimism on the supply side. Seems to be a main cause of the business cycle, too. Each individual business makes a decision based on current factors, not realizing that if every competitor does the same thing, the predicted lucrative market will actually not be very lucrative. And in that case, the weaker projects will have to yield. To stay committed requires that you believe your product is going to survive in a very crowded market.

If I were sitting on the LOTR license, I'd be pretty confident. If I had Blizzard's track record and fan base and no-release-until-it's-done ethic, I'd be confident but not cocky. If I had the Matrix franchise after the first film, I'd be pretty confident; but after films 2 and 3, and the poor play reviews of Enter the Matrix, maybe I'd not be so confident. If I had something of a new idea, like Pirates of the Burning Sea, or a direct appeal to the casual gamer (EQ II), there'd be some reason to keep going.

Mythica looked to be not just a clone of a current game, it was going to be a clone of a subset of current game, the Midgard realm of Camelot.

Now, none of this negates the long-run growth potential in this sector. In fact, it's all a sign of growth. But in a fast-moving economy, no growth potential goes unnoticed. Once everyone realizes it is there, they all dive in. While many are not going to make it, those that do capitalize on the potential and grow the market will be the cream of the crop.

The two innovations that, imho, could break open the doors for even a small project:

1. Resolve the conflict in play styles and atmosphere between powergamers and casual players. And I mean CASUAL. On Waterthread, people keep identifying themselves as casual gamers because they only play 2-3 hours a day. ! No, I mean people who go into the world once a week.

2. Make a simple interface. Actually, online console gaming will make this happen pretty soon.

[Nathan Combs]

4.

Edward Castronova wrote:

people keep identifying themselves as casual gamers because they only play 2-3 hours a day.

I wonder if "casualness" is a bit more subtle than time logged (and therein lies opportunities for devs to design strategies to attract "casual players").

Socializers would be one example - time spent in game is likely irrelevant to pushing "game" objectives.

Some games are conducive to folk going AFK for tremendous periods of time (Eve is good example here, e.g. hauling trade goods across half the galaxy: set on ship on auto and go paint the kid's bedroom - i've done this ;-)... this is an example suggesting some measure of "activity intensity".

...

-nathan

[Andrew Burton]

5.

"Mmm, maybe I need to start to read the small print of SL to see what revenue models could be used, I’d rather go for admission fees rather than selling objects."

1. Dwell. If you own an island, you're sure to get a good bit of dwell just for people hanging out.

2. Events. You can host events to either garner dwell or you can charge an admission fee. I'd easily pay $L10-50 to come hang out at a Steam Punk party (if this party boasted horrible and obscene Victorian imagery).

3. Developer Incentive. Get enough dwell and you get real money. Probably not enough to break even, but as a start it's something.

4. Create an auto-pay sceme. There are in-world, player-built systems for kicking people off your land. There are also in-world, player-built systems for charging/paying apartment rent. Kludge together a rent-checker/rent-payer/land-kicker and you've got a way to make sure only players can access your land to play. Charge $L3000 a month, which is roughly $9-10 real money, and you could run an in-world meta-MMOG for Steam Punk fans.

For $L3000 -- roughly two weeks stipend and dwell for land owners, and that does not count the Lindenaires who sell stuff -- a month you could have people, essentially, paying you for a low-end meta-MMOG (Toontown is, and Asheron's Call was/is/won't-be-for-long, $9.95 a month). Get 20-30 players to do this regularly, and you might even turn a profit.

Read the fine print, though, because _ALL_ of that is off the top of my head, without doing any homework beyond some old RL/$L echange rate numbers I have...

-Andy
(aka Jarod Godel)

[Mark Asher]

6.

"1. Resolve the conflict in play styles and atmosphere between powergamers and casual players. And I mean CASUAL. On Waterthread, people keep identifying themselves as casual gamers because they only play 2-3 hours a day. ! No, I mean people who go into the world once a week."

You need a new fee structure for once-a-week players. The monthly fees, which are edging up, will scare them away.

"2. Make a simple interface. Actually, online console gaming will make this happen pretty soon."

I don't think the interface is as big of a barrier as many people think. In any MMO the interface becomes second nature if you stick with the game for a few days.

I think the thing that makes a new player abandon an MMO after just a few hours isn't a confusing interface but the game world itself being confusing. They all have some kind of tutorial, but it's very easy to accidently wander away from the tutorial and be lost.

Maybe the commercial MMO market just isn't going to get a lot bigger. It's just one of many other entertainment venues competing for our time and money. There's probably a message board like this one where people are discussing what can be done for bowling to increase its audience. "Maybe bowling balls should have four holes? Has anyone ever tried that?"

[DivineShadow]

7.

"I don't think the interface is as big of a barrier as many people think. In any MMO the interface becomes second nature if you stick with the game for a few days."

In my casual gamer situation the interface actually *is* a barrier. Not to getting into the game the first time, but when trying to pick it up again or when playing casually (ie: 1-2 times a week). When I play only 1-2 times a week suddenly I realize that to be effective I have (previously developed) about 30-40 macros and since I haven't played in a week or two, I only have a general idea of where things are - but the thought of hitting the WRONG one at the wrong time stops me from hitting any but the ones I distinctly remember. Actually, I've developed a strategy to cope with this: I assign macros to different ALT-Shift-Control states depending on the type of action: Offensive/Restorative/Buff. This way the worst that can happen is I do something mildly silly, instead of blowing up five people.
Then you have a zillion resources to manage as part of your "dungeon stomp", you have them all in different containers and you can't remember where you put what, let alone how much of each you have. After the "dungeon stomp" you have to painstainkingly restock your consumables, check wear/tear, etc... What part of "casual" is this??

Just like some single-player "sim-style" games have the option to micro-manage for highest efficiency or "cruise", I'd like my next MMORPG to offer me that option. If I'm really into the game one week, then I'll micro-manage it for maximum efficiency. If the next few weeks I can't play, but then suddenly someone calls me for a rescue or I want to get playing again I want to set the thing to "Cruise" and have a little help.

[DivineShadow]

8.

Ren,

"Though these events do have to be contrasted with industry predictions that overall the MMO market is growing in strength."

Is it?

[Ren]

9.

Yes it is.

[Ren]

10.

OK, less flippantly. The stuff that I see seems to indicate that the total player base is getting larger. Which of course is different from the industry growing in strength as there is no reason why, in the short term, the two could go in the opposite direction – as indeed the ‘too much too soon’ idea might indicate. I suppose this analysis would come down to exactly what we meant by strength of an industry, maybe Dr C can help out here, as there could be well understood metrics for this sort of thing.

[Alan Stern]

11.

I agree with the two innovations mentioned above except that's not quite what I'm looking for. My hope is that some game will come along that in and of itself is an innovation in MMORPGs. Not that it strives to accomodate different styles of play but that it offers a whole new take on playing in general. Not that the in-game management is easier but that it offers an entirely new, revolutionary form of management. It rings of semantics but that's not my intent. I'm not looking for the next improved-EQ but the next EQ itself, the new basis by which future games will be judged. Unfortunately I have yet to hear of anything even close to that.

[DivineShadow]

12.

"maybe Dr C can help out here, as there could be well understood metrics for this sort of thing."

I'm asking because I'd like to understand...

I've seen Sir Bruce's chart and massaging the data and looking closely at the growth curves I can see the market grows by leaps and bounds every time a game is launched, then that game gets stabilized. New offerings seem to grow the space as a whole, existing offerings seem to run out of steam pretty quickly in terms of attracting new players.

[Raph]

13.

Alan: "I'm not looking for the next improved-EQ but the next EQ itself, the new basis by which future games will be judged."

There's a very small set of paradigms for online worlds. Collecting, levelling, chatting, roleplaying, user building, PvP, and team PvP. It's taken a while, but we have now seen MMO versions of each of these. Interestingly, within the industry I increasingly hear the distinction between EQ-style games and UO-style games, as if UO were somehow an alternate template--they usually call it the "game vs virtual world" split. To my tastes, though, they are still broadly the same paradigm.

You seem to be asking for a new paradigm. It took a full 10-15 years to get that full suite of paradigms going in text muds.

That said, I think Dark Ages and A Tale in the Desert and Eve and Neopets indicate that there are other paradigms out there. None of them may have the audience draw that the original sets had.

[Euphrosyne]

14.

My two bits of hodgepodge synthesis regarding market concerns and player base:

Nathan> "Some games are conducive to folk going AFK for tremendous periods of time (Eve is good example here, e.g. hauling trade goods across half the galaxy: set on ship on auto and go paint the kid's bedroom - i've done this ;-)... this is an example suggesting some measure of "activity intensity".

Edward> "Resolve the conflict in play styles and atmosphere between powergamers and casual players. And I mean CASUAL."

Raph> "There's a very small set of paradigms for online worlds. Collecting, levelling, chatting, roleplaying, user building, PvP, and team PvP."

No game (that I'm aware of) really lets you "play" while you're not only afk, but not even logged in. Take a 'normal' VW and add the ability to achieve some sort of ends in the player's absence. Set a command before you leave work; check progress an hour later at home; cook dinner and attend to various tasks and come back later in the evening to view progress, play for a couple hours, then set new away commands and check things in the morning. RW example: by buying (and holding) stocks, I maintain an interest that signals others and varies my holdings in my absence. I'm not suggesting a literal VW stock market as has been recently discussed, but rather that if players feel that events are affecting not only the game world but their characters directly, they will be inclined to check in frequently--and this can be done on a casual or dedicated basis, just like the stock market. Make it take no more than 5 minutes of their time to make choices that can net them real, even if minor, results. Of course, if they have more than 5 minutes, the full spread of normal gameplay is available. Make a cell phone interface so gamers can 'play' by spending a minute or so every hour (or even once a day). Make this activity affect the players who are at their keyboards killing monsters or trading interplanetary cargo. In the best case, this would build an implicit bond between all players, not just the ones currently logged in. Make the player's presence in the world truly persistent while requiring minimal time. Maybe allow a character type specialized in this sort of activity for the truly time-starved player. This potentially allows Nathan's afk time, builds Edward's casual player base, and adds a twist to Raph's paradigm list.

Has this already been done, presumably better than I put forth here?

[DivineShadow]

15.

"Take a 'normal' VW and add the ability to achieve some sort of ends in the player's absence"

I take it you mean to leave out the turn-based games...

"Has this already been done, presumably better than I put forth here?"

At the very least UO has something like this in the form of "Gardening" and also in the form of the Bulk Order Deed system.

With gardening there are a lot of seeds you can get off of some monsters/quests, you plant them and care for them like a little Tamagotchi (the virtual pet) by putting pesticides, healing, growth, water, etc into it depending on how the plant reacts. You can only do this once a day and all the plants "grow" a single stage once every day. If I remember correctly it takes about 8 days for a plant to mature. Once it matures it will be ready for pollination. You might cross-pollinate it and wind up with seeds that will in turn create a variant of the plants you used. This new seed might also turn out to be a very rare plant. Some plants are resource producers, if you decide to harvest resources from the plant, it doe snot produce seeds. The resources from these plants can make you immune to poison for a few minutes when ingested, or might be use to seal the words on a player-written book, etc. The system is basically a "low-touch" form of entertainment that you can spend only a few minutes on. A lot of people dedicate themselves to gardening. Of course the temptation is always there to have a gazillion plants, then the low-touch aspect went down the drain when you spend two hours caring for all the plants. And yes, if you don't care for the plant properly it will show problems and die.

The other system, the Bulk Order Deed system allows a player to receive an order for items from an NPC merchant. The player then crafts these items, puts them 'into' the deed and hands it over for a reward. They key here is that a player may only get one of these every set number of hours depending on their skill level (higher skill = More time in between, but larger orders too). The larger the orders are actually composed of 4-6 smaller orders, but since you actually need to get those smaller orders, fill them, then fill the large order with the small orders and the amount of combinations is huge (as are the rewards for completing the larger orders) a lot of trading/buying/selling of Bulk Order Deeds takes place.

SWG has similar systems with their resource harvesters, and EVE has some of this too.

But as far as the 'core' game, on a real-time game, I don't think I've seen this except for people running scripting engines and letting them loose. Which is also lots of fun.

[Ren]

16.

The Kids Today

As I was trying to say when I kicked off the Ommadawn thread, it seems to me that if the industry is really going to expand then it has to do something different, and there is a fair chance that those of us that like the current paradigms (the ones the Raph outlined above) are going to have a problem with some of these developments. That is we are likely to say that the developments are not good in some way or just not a game.

You could argue that social worlds like 2L and There are a paradigm shift, but my understanding of the history of VWs is that they are not, social worlds have always been a part of the scene and worlds where you can create your own objects have long history.

So, to take Maestro again; I’ve now been looking at the demo and so far its new age artsy fartsy floating around in a Rez like world - which I’m fine with for a few minutes (OK, I like Rez I’m actively looking forward to Minter’s Unity), but its so not my idea of a VW that I want to spend an extended time in – and that’s a good thing!

Talking of hippies we also have the wonderful A Tail in the Desert – a place that I have spent a fair amount of time. ATITD certainly does push at a few boundaries – the surfacing of the meta-game of rules into a political system, a game structure based on the idea of creating a co-operative society, and the fact that the game element of the world will just stop. I do wonder why more people don’t play it – is it that its too different, or is it that they simply don’t have the marketing spend ?

I also like the sound of the more FPS style of play in PlanetSite – my trigger finger is itching for some of that action.

But how far can the existing paradigms be pushed, are any of these games really exploring new markets i.e. reaching new people or just getting to more a of similar type of person? Aren’t we really just seeing variations at the edge of our comfort zone?

To put it another way: can a new generation’s music really be innovative if the parents of that generation don’t hate it?

[Ren]

17.

Having said the above…

Maybe I’m being trenchant in my views here, but I do think that there is one paradigm that is very difficult to work around, and this is concept of a social group.

One of the aspects of VWs is that you can form persistent groups over time. Now, we tend to talk about casual game play as just that: a casual experience that is ludically satisfying – and there are challenges to be solved here that will provide for both intense and casual game play.

But I feel that there is an underlying issue i.e. if we look at any social group then being a more active part of that group is (given certain facts about the group and ones participation in it) going to be more emotionally satisfying than being a casual member. In a sense life is about finding the groups that we want to have different degrees of association with.

So in a sense it’s a trivial problem to cater for the casual player in a VW – just provide them with casual games they can play: licence Tetris. And at the same time it might just be an impossible challenge to form a satisfying communal experience (which I take to be a constituent of an overall VW experience) that really mixes strong and casual bonds. And I wonder sometimes if these ludic and social goals are not being conflated many discussions.

[Sourtone]

18.

To bring in more players from outside the existing MMOG community, designers need to begin thinking outside the box. But first and foremost they need to step back... ignore the paradigm... ignore the players (the vocal ones are typically from niche groups)... and think "What would actually be fun?"

Grinding, for example, is not fun. This is repeatedly killing the same mobs to gain xp, repeatedly making the same items to gain skill, or repeatedly doing the same quests for any reason. If at any point your tester finds themselves thinking "I wish I had a macro for this" then that portion of the gameplay needs to be re-tooled. Macro's are an evil the encourage poor game design.

[ren]

19.

Just thought i would reference David Wong's Life After the Video Game Crash (http://www.pointlesswasteoftime.com/games/crash.html over at Poinless Waste of Time.

[Ren]

20.

There is a GameSpy interview with Toby Ragaini (Lead Designer of The Matrix Online) here:
archive.gamespy.com/interviews/march04/ragaini/