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Mar 22, 2004

Comments

1.

I'm in big disbelief in this model but then again, I'm fully in faith of the 'players are cheep' idea that people will pay as little as they can for as much as they can get. I.E. Pirate games like mad and still try to play on legit servers. Play on Emulated Servers just to engage in as much content as possable and rip off at every possable chance.

So, what we might see is a ton of players playing the game for free, and only a small market of players actually paying for the extra content out of love, curiosity or devotion. But will those few help make up the costs for the many? We'll have to see.

Tony

2.

Being free will definitely attract players... of course this is the first I've heard of Guild Wars so they seem to be going with the word-of-mouth advertising angle.

Of course free or not, word of mouth or not... if the game sucks and they can't get people to build community around it they won't see much traffic.

Just to note, they're not the first to try this "free game" model. Gunbound (www.gunbound.net... or www.gunbound.com if you speak Korean) is also a 100% free game. While very much on the "game" end of the spectrum, it does allow you to advance your character through the accumulation of gold and purchasing of progressively more powerful items. Where they get revenue is by allowing players to buy items for cash instead. You wouldn't think that would generate much revenue but they seem to have a ton of players willing to pony up a bit of cash for nicer gear.

3.

The screenshots looks very pretty... Did you see this Q/A in the FAQ?

Is Guild Wars an MMORPG (Massively Multiplayer Online Role Playing Game)?

The difference between Guild Wars and an MMORPG is that Guild Wars has been built from the ground up to create a fun and exciting experience right from the start of the game, even for first time players. We’ve eliminated frustrating elements such as spawn camping, kill stealing, endless traveling and treadmill gaming.... Guild Wars has been designed to reward gamers for their playing skill, and not solely for the number of hours they've spent gaming, which enables well-balanced competitive missions between players of almost all skill levels.

4.

I have my doubts as to whether a game with high system requirements can crack the casual playerbase. ( Of course I'm guessing at system requirements based on the screen shots. I could be off, or it could get delayed until they're reasonable requirements. )

It also sounds as if they'll be strongly using instancing, which imo, is quite undesireable when overused.

As usual, the proof will be in the pudding. In concept they have many casual-friendly mechanics. In practice... who knows?

At the very least their 'free' play will test the question of: Will persistent world gamers play more than 1 world at a time, even if price is no object?

5.

Speaking to Ren's question, I doubt this will solve the casual gamer issue. I'd agree with weasel...judging by the screen shots, people will need to have relatively good systems to run this game.

But I like the pricing model, and I think this could create a large player base right from the start. One item they better be sure of: when they release the game, it better be bug-free and in great shape, and the initial content within the world needs to be extremely appealing. If guild wars 'wows' people from the start, this pricing model could be a huge success and create a large user base. If the initial release is buggy and doesn't have much 'meat' or content to it...you can probably kiss this MMO goodbye rather quickly.

6.

Gregolas>Did you see this Q/A in the FAQ?
>Is Guild Wars an MMORPG (Massively Multiplayer Online Role Playing Game)?
>The difference between Guild Wars and an MMORPG is that Guild Wars has been built from the ground up to create a fun and exciting experience right from the start of the game, even for first time players.

Yes, i did; what i took them to mean was that this is a _good_ MMORPG as it seem to have at least those elements that make social worlds / MMORPGs, indeed it seemed to have more RPG than a social world.

At the very leasts its a VW.

And mmm is sure pweety.

7.

They could well attract a large player base, but for a commercial virtual world that counts for very little if those players are't paying. Casual players use up computer resources, CS resources and content, but all Guild Wars seems to ask in return is critical mass.

If they can attract a lot of players under the "free" ticket and then get them to buy stuff (as with Achaea) then that's another matter and they could make pots of money. This approach is, strictly speaking, "free", but not quite in the spirit of what people think "free" means; if people don't get sufficiently engaged before they're asked to part with money, they could disappear as easily as they appeared.

Richard

8.

Bart> One item they better be sure of: when they release the game, it better be bug-free and in great shape, and the initial content within the world needs to be extremely appealing.

I also think this is becoming more and more important. A virtual world can host thousands of hours of your time, it's true, but these days, we're going to be deciding whether or not to make that huge committment in the first hour or so of play. People went into a game like Horizons and saw, in the first hour or so: avatars, crafting, monsters, and leveling. In other words, basically the same newbie experience as every other game out there. If Horizons has cool things planned for later, most players won't ever know.

There's so much competition in this market right now. People have to be hooked into the unique features of a game right at the start or they won't be hooked at all.

9.

The model of "shared chat space with private adventure spaces" is certainly an interesting idea, although isn't that just Diablo with a 3D GameSpy where they host the servers? 3D matchmaking hasn't proven to be very successful in the past, although, as Ren points out, this may actually allow more role-playing.

I also find it interesting that the instantiated spaces folks hold up lack of persistence as a positive. By removing it, they are definitely not creating an online world, but they may very well be creating an excellent game, which is great.

10.

I think this model would make money in Asia and is nothing more than a quick way to go broke over here in the States.

11.

The key facet to Guild Wars success, I believe, will be to see if they've really conquered the "power = (time + patience)" formula. If power in the game is truly based off player skill and not character skill then how does your character grow? If he doesn't grow is it really an RPG?

I believe the core elements of any RPG to be:

1: Character Development
2: Story Arc
3: Character Involvement

So an RPG is where a players character develops in some way over the course of a GM (or whoever is running the game) defined story that involves the characters.

12.

"I think this model would make money in Asia and is nothing more than a quick way to go broke over here in the States."

The model is intriguing. If people go to the store and buy a comic book, why can't they go to the store and buy the next 'issue' of their game?
In a way you do this with subscription games, in this model you are doing it but instead of paying for a new "issue" by subscription you are going to the store and paying the face price.

13.

"The model is intriguing. If people go to the store and buy a comic book, why can't they go to the store and buy the next 'issue' of their game?"

The game doesn't look to be story-driven. It doesn't even look like there's a lot of character development. It's sounding more and more like an online action game set in a fantasy world.

I hope it works for them, though. Free's a nice price.

14.

"The model is intriguing. If people go to the store and buy a comic book, why can't they go to the store and buy the next 'issue' of their game?
In a way you do this with subscription games, in this model you are doing it but instead of paying for a new "issue" by subscription you are going to the store and paying the face price."

The pay-as-you-go model does work in Asia and I think it may work in the US too. Moreover, it could be an interesting adaptation of the established print media publishing business model. Distribution via FLGS (friendly local game/comic store) model may take advantage of store promotion and reach out to new players.

But echoing Surtone, "if the game sucks and they can't get people to build community around it they won't see much traffic"

On the otherhand,they will have a frequent and discreet way to measure the popularity of each content push.

Waiting for the results....
Frank

15.

There seem to be at least two balancing acts that the ArenaNet team need to pull off.

First the base game / content (the free stuff) has to be sufficiently interesting to pull people in – as this seems to the chief USP of the service and one assumes is the basis of the community they are trying to build. While at the same time the Chapters (the paid for stuff) has to be sufficiently interesting to convert enough people to the paid model to sustain the business. The worst case scenario being that the freebee’s feel like poor relations and the cashers feel ripped off.

Second, there is the same issue from the angle of perceived value and progression. One of the things that makes a MMO live is the switching cost – which comes in many forms: social (the community one has built up), financial (if one want to look at the cash value of stuff) and, one might say, effort-investment value (paging DrC - what is the term here?). That is, one values that time that one has put into developing stuff in the word. But, I would argue this is not a simply negative value i.e. we cant simply see it as something that holds someone to a world while other forces tend to tear them away, it is also a positive thing i.e. people get positive emotional value from the things they have build. Now, I wonder with both the skills emphasis and the general balance between the casual (free) player and the more dedicated player (that the world seems to be trying to achieve) whether one can really pull this off – can value really be built if a n00b can turn up and kick your ass? Well possibly as value does not need to be combat related; so where is it going to go?

Oh, there have been a number of references to the Asian market, as it happens ArenaNet is a wholly owned subsidiary of ncsoft - which could explain a lot, including depth of pocket.

16.

Jessica,

You write, " think this model would make money in Asia and is nothing more than a quick way to go broke over here in the States."

We operate in the States and have been using this precise business model since 1997. We've never approached broke-dome, and have grown at least 60% for the last 5 years.

--matt

17.

Also,

Most games now have free beta periods. With the exception of beta tester selection, the model basically works in similar ways.

This model is also similar to shareware distribution where only a certain portion of the content is free. Payments are required to unlock additional levels and content.

Frank

18.

Frank: Most games now have free beta periods... the model basically works in similar ways
This model is also similar to shareware

The primary divergence with this model is that those who play free (freeloaders), and those who pay to play (paying customers) share the same space at the same time. Due that slight change, the balancing act gets harder. Those who pay have to feel like they do get something more for their money - yet those who do not pay have to feel like they do have a fair shot. (particularly due the suggested emphasis on PvP content)

Too much advantage for the paying customer, and the freeloaders leave -- too little, and no-one pays to play the game.

Competitive content requires either a large community, or regular turnover. Guild Wars will need to attract and retain a stream of freeloaders to achieve this. A free trial situation does not require this, as if there's also 'free' PvE content, it's not as dependent on a stream freebees being present. Nor does shareware have this requirement, as freeloaders and paying customers don't play alongside one another.

Furthermore, free trials limit the duration one can play for free, to limit the financial loss incurred when players try, but do not buy. Shareware software doesn't even have to maintain an infrastructure, or do CS for people who are only trying the game.

Achaea has succeeded, imo, because of the rate of conversion to paying customers. People don't hang around for long as a freeloader there, and the paying customers aren't reliant on the freeloader's presence to provide content.

Guildwars seems to be based on the high-level-idea that some people want to play persistent worlds as a sort of counterstrike-style experience (free, pick-up-and-go multiplayer) and some people want to play immersed as part of a world/story/community - and are willing to pay for the privilege.

It'll be an interesting experiment but I think creating a customer caste system like this is not going to fly in America -- not on a large scale.

19.

weasel wrote: Guildwars seems to be based on the high-level-idea that some people want to play persistent worlds as a sort of counterstrike-style experience (free, pick-up-and-go multiplayer) and some people want to play immersed as part of a world/story/community - and are willing to pay for the privilege.

This is similar to what was going through my mind as I continued to read through the threads. I almost get the feel that this pricing model *might* elicit two different styles of play. Those who are interested in heavy PvP and the c00l d33ds, if the game is interesting enough, may just stay with the free content and pummel each other over and over and over again. Those that really like the game and want to spend some more time socializing, killing monsters, collecting items, might begin to pay the price for the expansions...in part to get away from the clutter and the PvPers. Sure, it sounds like there will always be PvP in this game, no matter where you are. But if I didn't want to PvP, and I knew if I bought a cheap expansion for a game I really like I could greatly reduce my PvP exposure...that's a no brainer.

Who knows if something like this would ever happen, but it'll be interesting to watch. The MMO experiment continues...

20.

Responding to weasels first comment, just because they took screenshots on a high end machine doesn't mean the minimum requirements for the game will be a problem. Most 3D engines these days are very scalable as far hardware requirements go - they'll be as pretty and system intensive as you want, or ugly and low end as you need.

Just look at AC2.

21.

"We’ve eliminated frustrating elements such as spawn camping, kill stealing, endless traveling and treadmill gaming..."

So... you've eliminated the game.

While players rant and rave about camping, KSing, and the treadmill, they seem to enjoy it. Or at least they keep giving money to the games that have it and refusing the switch to an alternative that eliminated at least one of these things.

22.

Haemish on the age-old topic of treadmills (without a single expletive).

http://www.f13.net/2.php?subaction=showfull&id=1081551008&archive=&start_from=&ucat=2&

23.

"This is similar to what was going through my mind as I continued to read through the threads. I almost get the feel that this pricing model *might* elicit two different styles of play. Those who are interested in heavy PvP and the c00l d33ds, if the game is interesting enough, may just stay with the free content and pummel each other over and over and over again. Those that really like the game and want to spend some more time socializing, killing monsters, collecting items, might begin to pay the price for the expansions...in part to get away from the clutter and the PvPers. Sure, it sounds like there will always be PvP in this game, no matter where you are. But if I didn't want to PvP, and I knew if I bought a cheap expansion for a game I really like I could greatly reduce my PvP exposure...that's a no brainer."

You are forgetting that some people are coming to this game specifically for the PvP-centered aspect of this game. Other MMOs seem to add PvP as an afterthought to the world that they create for characters to get emersed in. With Guild Wars, it seems that PvP is a much more central role. Of course, there will be plenty PvE, and gamer who don't want to participate in the PvP events can explore the world just like any other MMO. What I find so interesting about this game is how it attempts to combine the MMO and FPS genres into one game, with the best features of each.

As for the business model, one thing Arenanet has done is announced a World Preview Event. This event is much like any other open beta event, but on top of this there will be other similar 'open' events on the beginning weekend of each month until the game is released in early 2005. They way you gain access to these monthly beta tests is by pre-ordering the game. I would be interested to see how many pre-orders they have now, as well as how many they have directly after this initial event coming up next weekend.

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