EconoMUDtrics

Dave Rickey's otherwise tack-sharp take on the virtual-property question, previously cited, contains one passing assertion that could maybe use some sharpening:

"Where the US/European MMO market is over $200,000,000 per year of revenue (and Asia is even bigger), it's doubtful that the secondary market in items and characters is even as much as 10% of that."

I'm curious to see how Dave calculated that estimate for the "secondary market." (Gosh, if only he were a regular commentator on this blog... oh, wait... Dave?)

My own estimate goes something like this:

Starting with Ted Castronova's figures for sales in eBay's Internet games category, we get an annualized total of $16 million. But that is surely only a fraction of total sales in the market. In the Ultima Online market, for instance, the best-educated guesses put the total for non-eBay sales (through sites like UOTreasures, UOEmporium, et al.) at twice the eBay figure. Working that formula on UO alone adds $6 million to the total. Applying it to the rest of the games traded on eBay would add another $26 million. But just to be on the safe side, let's throttle the multiplier back from 2-to-1 to 1-to-1, adding $13 million instead, for a total of $35 million.

We're not done yet, though. We still haven't even begun to reckon with the behemoth that doesn't trade on eBay: EverQuest. Back when EQ auctions weren't yet contraband, Castronova figured the market at $5 million. And that wasn't counting non-eBay transactions. Nowadays, EQ trades still thrive on the gray-market auction site PlayerAuctions, and at superstores like IGE and Jonathan Yantis's MySuperSales. We could assume the market hasn't gone down any since the eBay ban (the subscriber base has only gone up, after all), and we could apply the 2-to-1 rule, for an additional $15 million. But again, let's be conservative, estimate the non-auction sales at 1-to-1, and guess that the market has dropped by half since Castronova's calculations. That adds another $5 million to the total.

Bottom line: $20 million (or 10 percent of industry revenues) looks more like the absolute minimum size of the player-to-player market. A better guess would be more like $40 million. And if you wanted to go nuts (or already are), you could even say it's as much as $63 million.

Still no match for the business of creating worlds, but nothing shabby in its own right. And don't forget, that Asian market no doubt has a secondary market of its own, whose size, if ratios hold, may well outdo the primary market in such backward regions as our own.

Comments

[Edward Castronova]

1.

And let's not forget that Trade and Value don't care what the currency of denomination is. All trades in gold and platinum pieces and credits and ISK count as Trade, and all assets held inside synthetic worlds count as Value.

Worldwide, we have some 5 - 20 million people spending some 5 - 10 percent of their waking hours in worlds where value is created and traded on an ongoing basis. Just applying the percentages, that's going to be comparable to the 24/7 economic activity of a good-sized city - somewhere between 250,000 and 2 million people.

Globally significant? Nah. Rochester, New York isn't globally significant either. But it still matters.

[Ren]

2.

Timely bit of work Julian - just as i was slotting data into my current paper (to be presented at AoIR next week). Consider it referenced .

This Blog is referenced on the AoIR blog list, so is TeamTerraNova bigging-it-up in Toronto next week ?

ren

[The $Rickey]

3.

I basically took your numbers for annualized UO figures, allowed for the proportion UO represents of the overall OLRPG market, and came up with a number right around $20M. I didn't try to estimate the non-eBay market, I don't have enough background to make a meaningful guess.

The $200M figure for the overall industry revenue is also a guess, although one I'm more confident of (if it was off by more than 20%, I would be surprised).

--Dave

[Dave Rickey]

4.

Posted by: The $Rickey at October 8, 2003 03:55 PM

Okay, who's the wise guy?

[Dan Hunter]

5.

Ren: "This Blog is referenced on the AoIR blog list, so is TeamTerraNova bigging-it-up in Toronto next week ? "

Actually, "Team TerraNova" is our NASCAR racing team ("L'Equipe Noveau Monde/Credit Lyonnais" is our pro cycling team on the European circuit, and "Guild TN" is our huge bloodpledge guild in Lineage kr).

I think you mean the Central Committee of the TerraNova Semi-Autonomous Economic Region. Alas, the members of the CCotTSAER are all overcommitted, and won't be heading to our good neighbor to the north. Besides, Ted's just changed the dosage on his medication, and Julian is wanted on check-kiting charges as a result of a "misunderstanding" that occurred in Northern Ontario, and he barely escaped last time with his life.

Thank God the Buffalo police despise those mounties.

[DivineShadow]

6.

Julian,
You are overestimating PlayerAuctions. Their trading (EQ+not much else) is under $3400 per day, which puts it at slightly over $1.2M a year, not $5M (at least not anymore). It would also seem Playerauctions doesn't even begin to break even, at raw revenues (no credits and such) of approx. $3K per month given their amount of listings, the sales volume they pass through and their fee schedule.

This last bit will of course change for PA's benefit if VWs continue down the path of using eBay's un-VeRO&VVB (un-Verified Rights Owner and Verified Virtual Bully) program.

[Unggi Yoon]

7.

I wonder here is a right place to post this comment.

Itembay.com-the biggest item trading brokerage company in Korea- recently annonced that it is going to launch item rent brokerage business.

The slogan is "Gamers! Earn money by renting items sleep in the inventory bag"

NcSoft, Webzen, Nexon etc fiercely oppose the advent of rental brokerage service and poise to sue Itmebay for spoil the in-game economy system and the nature of "gaming".