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Sep 25, 2003



Welcome to the world of Wall Street analysts, who have huge incentives to say things but have, in fact, not much to say. I've already gotten calls from reporters: "What do you make of the fact that currencies seem to be selling at a lower price this quarter?" Well, um, either the supply has increased or the demand has decreased. Lower volumes suggest declines in demand or supply or both. The intensifying competition in this sector could explain it. But there's not much more we can say; the numbers are, in a sense, irreducibly interesting: trade volume for UO goods has softened. That the trade has a pattern worthy of contemplation - something more than mere noise - is the most interesting about it.


I'd say it's pretty clear that demand is softening for the summer. Average play time per week also drops in the summer, although play time per session doesn't change much (implying that people are more likely to skip a session in summer). Since prices don't soften much compared to the reduction in volume, either the sellers are remarkably disciplined or supply is also somewhat reduced.

Yeah, your chart is definitely more of a sea chart than an astrological forecast. Only problem is, it's a 15th century chart, it's not what it says that's the problem, but the fact that we know it is missing a lot.


You gonna post the graphs for all the games? :)


I'm a doctor, Jim, not a programmer!

If someone can rig up an auction crawler that aggregates sales by game title, and also can be applied to playerauctions.com, then we could post weekly trade volume and average prices by game.

Unfortunately, I don't have the funds to contract for something like this myself. Maybe some kind-hearted coder could help us out.


I am finding this whole project fascinating. It's cutting into my work. Well, not exactly, but it COULD be if I had that much work.

EVE isk sales, after freefalling from around $4 per mil to about $0.50 per mil, appear to have firmed up a bit in the $1.5 per mil area. I'm averaging slightly better at about $2 per mil. I'm learning ebay marketing! There are definitely impulse buy zones that combine well with ebay fees scheduling and Buy It Now.

I'm still a producer rather than a trader. I sell what I produce in game, rather than playing the arbitrage game (which is a wee bit risky in this market in any case, maybe if the trend line turns positive).

I'm not at all sure SWG is cannibalizing UO. Well, the player base might be shifting, but by eyeball I don't see that much trade activity happening in SWG vgoods yet. I may be missing something. I hope so.


Ted: "I don't have the funds to contract for something like this myself. Maybe some kind-hearted coder could help us out."

What about we head over to lazyweb and asked them to do something for us? I'm happy to make the request if we can work out the specifics of what is needed.

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